Silly Season Is Upon Us

“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.” –Warren Buffett


Silly season is upon us. That time of year when Wall Street forecasters, who are paid boatloads of money, come up with their predictions for the year.

There’s one major problem, though, with these predictions. Their track record is abysmal. There’s virtually no correlation between these predictions and how the markets actually behave.

Check out this recent article in the NYT, Forget Stock Market Forecasts. They’re Less Than Worthless.

Nice to see our buddy, David Booth, referenced and quoted in the article.

Booth’s message remains constant. Invest in low-cost diversified index funds. Find the stock-bond mix you’re comfortable with. If not, change it until you are then stick with it for years. No forecasts necessary.

The last piece of Booth’s advice is probably the most important – spend your life on better things than worrying where the market is going.